Objective(s)

Students will categorize events as certain, impossible, likely, or unlikely to occur.
Students will make predictions and conduct activities to test their predictions, and express likes and dislikes during a discussion of risk taking.
Students will use technology: calculators and computers with the Internet.

National Standards

Math: explore probablity and the process of data analysis and predictions.

Summary

Students will participate in activities that will enhance their ability to take chances, including an activity called "Predict and Roll" using the calculator and "Heads or Tails" on the computer.

Technology and/or Materials Needed

• Computers with Internet access
• Calculators
• Two inflatable globes
• Large cardboard circles
• Number cubes
• Class set of Resource Page 1
• Transparency of Recource Page 1
• One copy of Resource Page 2
• Cake, frosting, plate, knives, etc.

Implementation Time Frame

Three to five 45-minute class period

Activities

Ask students to describe the chances of someone making a basket on the first try from a distance of ten feet with a basketball. Focus the discussion on vocabulary such as likely, unlikely, probably, maybe, certain, impossible, or highly unlikely. Ask students to describe the chances of a professional basketball player, such as Michael Jordan, making a basket on the first try at ten feet.

Next, show the class a set of number cubes and ask students to name all the possible outcomes. Allow students to mark their responses on paper and then share their answers. Have students predict what sum is most likely to land face up. Students should justify their responses. Next, divide the class into groups of four students. Give each group a number cube and each student Resource Page 1. Let students predict the most frequent sums. Now, students will roll the number cubes a total of twenty times and record the results in Resource Page 1 by marking an X in each square above the sum. After each group has completed their twenty rolls, each group will share the results of the experiment and the teacher will record the results on an overhead graph.

Teacher will read the short story below, a short story on UFOs, or "Cam Jansen and the Mystery of the UFO" by David Adler. The teacher will explain to the class that many UFOs that are sighted and reported are merely space junk or meteorites that have fallen into the earth's atmosphere. Ask students to predict whether if a UFO were to fall would it most likely hit land or water. Encourage students to give reasons for their predictions.

Next, divide the class into two groups. Have students form two large circles. Choose one student to reocord the data and another student to count the number of trials. The rest of the group will toss an inflated globe around the circle. When they catch the globe, they will note where their right index finger lands (on water or land) and report the result to the recorder. After each group makes 50 tosses, the data from both groups are added together, making a total of 100 trials. Calculate totals for land and water. Share with students information on how much land and water make up the world or have students research this information. (The earth is made up of approximately 71% water and 29% land).

Extension: Students will assemble a cake, representing land and sea. The cake will be decorated showing an accurate proportion of land and water.

Assessment

Students will write a short essay or journal entry describing what they have learned about probability in these activities. This summary will be assessed for key points on aspects of probability.

Resources and Related Links

Name _____________________________________________________

Number Cubes Graph -- Totals

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Something is Out There
By Gloria Bolin

Tony and James lived in Friendsvill, Nebraska. They were friends, and they loved nature. They especially loved exploring the nearby Timberwolf Forest. Hugh pine and oak trees grew in the forest. A small lake, Wolf Lake, was located near the center of the forest. Almost every day, the two boys went to the forest. On these explorations they would discover things such as wild strawberries, and yellow-speckled frogs. Sometimes, they would go fishing in the lake.

One day, they were walking toward the forest. Tony yelled, "Iíll race you to Wolf Lake!", as he took off, his feet pounding the hard ground. "Wait for me!" shouted James as he raced to catch up to Tony. Both boys ran as fast as they could, and skidded to a stop on th rocks that surrounded Wolf Lake.

Suddenly, an object appeared over their heads. The boys stared in disbelief. It was glowing! With out warning, the object started falling toward the earth.